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This revision incorporates projected effects of Brexit, but also other developments since April that lead us to adjust the outlook. The growth reduction for sub-Saharan Africa-driven by the difficult macroeconomic situation in its largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa-has a dramatic implication: in 2016, regional output growth will fall short of population growth, implying declining per capita incomes. Outside the advanced economies, gains in the emerging group are matched by losses in low-income economies. Relative to the April baseline scenario, the new baseline concentrates the growth slowdown through 2017 in the advanced countries. For today’s update, we have reduced both of those projections by 0.1 percentage point, to 3.1 and 3.4 percent, respectively. Our April outlook was for 3.2 percent global output growth in 2016 and 3.5 percent in 2017. The new World Economic Outlook Update, released today, reports our revised analysis. But Brexit has thrown a spanner in the works.
#WORLD ECONOMY OUTLOOK 2016 UPGRADE#
As of June 22, we were therefore prepared to upgrade our 2016-17 global growth projections slightly. The first half of 2016 revealed some promising signs-for example, stronger than expected growth in the euro area and Japan, as well as a partial recovery in commodity prices that helped several emerging and developing economies.
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The United Kingdom’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union adds downward pressure to the world economy at a time when growth has been slow amid an array of remaining downside risks. Versions in عربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Français (French), and Español (Spanish)